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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.